Catcher Deterioration: Projecting Russell Martin’s Starts the Next Four Years

Russell Martin Pirates

Can Russell Martin continue to retain value by staying healthy behind the plate? (Natalie Litz/Creative Commons)

One of my projects still on the table is to determine a proper contract value for Pirates catcher Russell Martin. There are so many aspects to evaluating a catcher, not the least of which is how many runs and wins his defense is worth.

I want to consider one factor in this post: deterioration. We all know that catcher is the toughest position (other than pitcher) on a baseball player’s body. Guys get knocked around by foul balls and wild pitches, must crouch and stand for all nine innings, and even still, get occasionally pummeled by world-class athletes running full-speed into home plate.

How long can Russell Martin continue to start 100-plus games per season at the catcher position? To get some idea, I looked for catchers over the last 30 years who have made 1,000 starts by age 32, as Martin has made 1,050.

Here were the results and season-by-season start totals for those players, with thanks to the indispensable Baseball-Reference Play Index:

Starts at Catcher

 

Focus on the average/median starts for age 34 and 35. One could easily project that Martin will make only 160-170 total starts over those two seasons.

A few conclusions I want to make:

  • The catchers stayed healthier than I anticipated.

Two of the 10 catchers flamed out, as Charles Johnson and Todd Hundley both retired before their age-35 seasons. But Hundley dealt with major elbow surgery and a Piazza-led move to left field in 1998. The fact that 8 of 10 catchers made at least 60 catcher starts at age 34 showed decent sustainability for older catchers.

  • Props to Jason Kendall.

His season-ending dislocated ankle at age 25 could have lingered and shortened his career. But for the next 11 seasons, he started at least 118 games at catcher in a showing of remarkable longevity. He probably could have extended that streak if he didn’t become an awful hitter. Still, what a bulldog.

  • Ultimately, catcher deterioration should be factored into Martin’s contract.

Catchers like Benito Santiago, Ramon Hernandez and Javy Lopez had similar offensive metrics and health levels to Martin through age 31. All three struggled to make as many starts in their following four seasons. All catchers are not equal, but it’s safe to expect Martin will not average 115 starts at catcher per season for the next four years.

How much should one considered deterioration into the contract? Depends on many things. Do you think Martin is built differently than older catchers? Can your training staff can keep him healthy through age 35? Will Martin’s offense (at near-career-highs this season, but should regress) be enough to hack it at third base or first base?

Those are just a few of the questions Neal Huntington and 29 other general managers must consider before offering a four-year contract to Martin this offseason. And it wouldn’t hurt for fans to think about it too.

Sports Event Bucket List: 8 Events I Want to See

With the start of the U.S. Open this week, I began to think of the sports events I most want to see before I die. Let’s do it. I’ll set up the Kickstarter later.

 

Wimbledon/French Open/U.S. Open

What an amalgamation: major tennis tournaments, at historic venues, in three of the world’s most exciting cities. Yeah, I could spend two weeks in London, Paris and New York. I also think top-level tennis, like hockey, benefits greatly from watching live as opposed to on television. When the top players are on the court, the sway of the crowd seems infectious. And I haven’t even got to the Berries and Cream at the All-England Club.

 

College World Series

We’re talking about 11 straight days of baseball played at its highest leverage (two games per day quite often). Even if you don’t recognize the names, you can’t deny how pressure-packed the CWS is. Eight teams enter Omaha, only one team can win. And for most of the seniors, it is their last gasp of competitive baseball. I would have liked to go to Rosenblatt before it was torn down, but at least the new place seems a bit more comfortable.

 

Rose Bowl

There are many college football games I would like to see in-person: the Iron Bowl, the Red River Shootout, the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, the Sequoia Bowl, the Battle of Bull Run, the Lebanese Civil War, the Potato Cup. But can you beat The Granddaddy of Them All? Can you beat the Tournament of Roses? Can you beat being in Pasadena on January 1 while the rest of the country is snowed in? It is the last postseason bowl people actually care about, and that alone is significant.

 

FIFA World Cup

If you watched even a little bit of the World Cup this summer, I don’t need to explain why this is on the bucket list. It is the pinnacle of international team sports, a worldwide passion packed into one tournament. While I wouldn’t dump out the savings account to attend Russia 2018 or Qatar 2022, I will start counting the pennies for the next time the World Cup returns to the United States or Western Europe. Those are the ideal venues.

 

The Masters

Watching a golf tournament in person is not my idea of a fun time. Being on my feet all day in huge crowds and often-sweltering heat? Yeah, I would rather take my own clubs and play a quick 9 at Divot Hills. But The Masters is different. Augusta National blooms off the television screen, and I can handle Georgia in spring. The history there grows like loblolly pines. Even if you don’t love golf, you can enjoy the Masters. There is a small part of every man in America that dreams of spending the first week of April with his dad at Augusta.

 

World Baseball Classic in Caribbean

As much as I adore baseball, it will never have a tournament that comes close to the FIFA World Cup. The importance of international play is just not deeply ingrained like it is for soccer. But in a few nations it comes close, mostly the Caribbean nations, which are used to international competition with the Caribbean World Series. Did you see the craziness of Dominican, Puerto Rican and Venezuelan fans in the San Juan pool of the last World Baseball Classic? More significantly, did you hear them? What a frenzy. I would love to witness it.

 

Winter Olympics

Well, I have already been to the Summer Olympics, so this would naturally follow. The hockey tournaments are some of the best action the sport has to offer. I want to watch speed skating with oranged-out Dutch people, biathlon with whacked-out Norwegian people, curling with kind Canadians. C’mon, Oslo, bid for it. That would be a damn-near-perfect Winter Olympics.

 

A World Series in Pittsburgh

Pretty, pretty please?

Fantasy Football Drafting for My Sister: How’d I Do?

Fantasy football experts, assemble!

I want to get some opinions on the team I selected. I have not played fantasy football in two years. Reasons? Mostly my declining interest in the NFL as a whole but still wanting to watch the games without being influenced by “oh I have this guy on my team.” Even more than all that, though, I simply didn’t wanna.

But my sister asked me a few days ago: “I’ll be on a plane during my fantasy draft this year. Could you pick for my team?” Sure, why not. I am rusty, but I couldn’t be that bad. I mean, several other people chose kickers before the last round.

So I ask you now, people who play fantasy football, was I that bad? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter @JamesSantelli.

Settings, Scoring

  • 12-team league
  • Points per reception
  • ESPN standard scoring (1 pt per 25 passing yards, 1 pt per 10 rushing/receiving yards, 4 pts per TD pass, 6 pts per TD run/catch, etc.)
  • Basic team: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 RB/WR, 1 TE, 1 D/ST, 1 K
  • 8th overall pick

My Picks

Eddie Lacy 2014 Pro Bowl

Maybe this picture of Eddie Lacy will liven up a terrible blog post!

  • QB Tom Brady
  • QB Carson Palmer
  • RB Eddie Lacy
  • RB Toby Gerhart
  • RB Shane Vereen
  • RB Lamar Miller
  • RB Terrance West
  • WR Dez Bryant
  • WR Antonio Brown
  • WR Golden Tate
  • WR Rueben Randle
  • WR Brian Hartline
  • TE Rob Gronkowski
  • D/ST Buccaneers
  • K Blair Walsh

1st Round

8th: Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay

(Also considered: Jimmy Graham, TE, New Orleans)

2nd Round

17th: Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas

(Also considered: A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati)

3rd Round

32nd: Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh

(Also considered: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona)

4th Round

41st: Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England

(Also considered: Andre Ellington, RB, Arizona)

5th Round

56th: Toby Gerhart, RB, Jacksonville

(Also considered: Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego)

6th Round

65th: Tom Brady, QB, New England

(Also considered: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta)

7th Round

80th: Shane Vereen, RB, New England

(Also considered: Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans)

8th Round

89th: Golden Tate, WR, Detroit

(Also considered: Mike Wallace, WR, Miami)

9th Round

104th: Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

(Also considered: Fred Jackson, RB, Buffalo)

10th Round

113th: Rueben Randle, WR, NY Giants

(Also considered: Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans; Tony Romo, QB, Dallas)

11th Round

128th: Terrance West, RB, Cleveland

(Also considered: Danny Woodhead, RB, San Diego)

12th Round

137th: Brian Hartline, WR, Miami

(Also considered: Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City)

13th Round

152nd: Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati

(Also considered: Ryan Tannehill, I guess)

14th Round

161st: Buccaneers D/ST

(Also considered: Bears D/ST)

15th Round

176th: Blair Walsh, K, Minnesota

(Also considered: Are you kidding me? It’s a kicker, man.)

LEAVE YOUR THOUGHTS IN THE COMMENTS. TELL ME I SUCK!

Attending My First Gymnastic Event: A Series of Whoa’s

Gymnastics

I’ve seen many types of sports in-person, as you can guess: football, soccer, baseball, basketball, ice hockey, field hockey, water polo, track and field, tennis, lacrosse, volleyball, even team handball.

But one sport had avoided the desecration that comes with my attendance: gymnastics. Somehow I never made it to London’s O2 Arena (née Millennium Dome) for gymnastics during the 2012 Olympics. Perhaps that was for the best; if my first experience with a sport is at its highest level and pitch, how can I possibly enjoy anything less? This is the first-worldiests of first-world problems.

So it was that my first time watching real-life gymnastics was Thursday and Friday for the P&G Championships at Consol Energy Center. The talent and prowess on the floor and through the air astounded me. I came away amazed by the athleticism and artistry at all. Shall I call it sporting Cirque du Soleil? I hope it does not denigrate these athletes to be compared to high-level theatre. I mean only to praise.

I watched girls born in 1998 perform such acrobatics on a 3.9-inch-wide beam that a more worrisome person would consider child endangerment. I saw men built to cartoonish physiques rotate around a pommel horse with strength beyond human. The vaults, the rings, the bars, the sheer absurdity of the forms these athletes painted in the air… am I overzealous? These are supremely strong humans who labor to perfect a form.

2014 P&G Gymnastics Championships

Consol Energy Center, usually decked for hockey, made for a fabulous gymnastics host.

I’m not sure if this is the way all gymnastics meets run, as I’ve only been to two now, but the men’s and women’s formats are quite different. First, the women’s event: 11 competitors on four apparatuses (apparati?), split up on two apparatuses at a time. Every performance was separated, leaving some downtime as you wait for the next athlete.

This format, admittedly, makes the pace a bit slow and boring. As it was the first day of events and no medals would be awarded on the day, waiting between events became a chore rather than building up anticipation.

Contrast that scene with the men’s format: 33 competitors are split up to each of the six men’s apparatuses. Unlike the women, these guys aren’t taking turns for the attention of the crowd. Let’s go: one on vault, one on pommel horse, rings, high bar, parallel bars, floor exercise, all at once. For all intents, this is a completely different sport. It is frantic and kinetic. Study up on the program to see who the past Olympians and National Champions are, then pay attention to their performances.

That brings me to another stark difference between the women’s session and men’s session: name recognition. I could remember names that popped on NBC with five rings, like Jonathan Horton, Danell Leyva, Jake Dalton, John Orozco and Sam Mikulak, and I focused on them when they were on an apparatus. It also helped that most of the elite men wore the uniform of Team Hilton HHonors, which is both the team financially supported by USA Gymnastics and a ridiculous example of Corporate America creating a word with two H’s in which both are silent.

Point is, I knew the guys.

I couldn’t bring the same knowledge to the women’s competition. Perhaps this is on me needing to know more about the sport and the top American athletes. Fact is, all five of the U.S. men from London showed up to Pittsburgh. Only one of the women did. Isn’t this supposed to be the national championship? I wagged my finger at Pittsburghers not filling up the seats. But if it has become a truism that most Americans only care about gymnastics during the Olympics and your event has only one former Olympian in Kyla Ross, well, you reap the smaller crowds you sow.

(A side note: I’m certain USA Gymnastics gets untold money letting Procter and Gamble be the title sponsor for its top competition. P&G seems like a fantastic partner to the sport in America. I also believe you could garner larger crowds and more attention if you are able to call your national championships “the national championships,” and not a corporate-titled event that sounds like it could be any ol’ competition.)

But to conclude, I’ll give mainstream America at least one reason they should care: Simone Biles. People. This young lady has been industrial-engineered and performance-tested to optimal specifications. Even speaking as a novice to the sport privy only because of Olympic-based viewings, I can tell you she deserves the mechanical metaphor. Biles represents what happens when God takes 57 inches of muscle and stuffs it into a person. You don’t become World All-Around Champion without sharpness in all four areas, but Biles’ floor exercise nearly sent me into stunned disbelief. How does one do that?

What a shame it would be for Biles to not get her rightful Olympic glory because of a biological clock. She was born in March 1997, just barely too young to qualify for London Games eligibility, and may be a tad too far past her prime (yeah, at age 19) to win in Rio. I suppose that’s gymnastics for ya. But Biles’ fantastic abilities provide a perfect example of why this sport is too good, these athletes too astonishing, to be treated as a quadrennial sideshow.

The USC Annenberg Files: 15 People You Should Hire Instead of Me

This week, for the last four years, I was heading back to a most fantastic place: the University of Southern California. And now I’m not.

What a strange feeling. I miss this week: the days before the school year starts. I don’t miss the actual school year much, but the off-days, of course!

Plus, the lucky brats at the Annenberg School for Communication & Journalism get a new building this year. Those ungrateful… brats.

Look at this exterior.

Wallis Annenberg Hall

Bask in the glow of this newsroom!

Annenberg Newsroom

GAZE UPON THE MAJESTY OF THIS NEW STUDIO!

Annenberg Studio

I decided I wanted to write about a few of the classmates with whom I was lucky to work (and drink). If you’re a friend of mine and you’re not on this list, I secretly hate you I’ll be writing more of these lists as a demonstration of gratitude for my friends. Take a chill pill.

Plus, I still have more than 350 of these blog posts to go, and I’m always strapped for ideas. These were the first 15 names that came to mind, the Opening 15:

Kristen Rodgers — If you are ever going to lead an organization with someone, do it with Kristen. She is uncommonly organized and dedicated, works as hard as a Puritan and will do the things you don’t want to do. Add in the fact that she is a dynamite sports reporter and a good-looking blonde, and you’ll see her on one of your national sports shows soon enough.

(If any potential employers read the previous paragraph, Kristen was a lazy figurehead. I did everything myself.)

Elisa Hernandez — Another my partner-in-crime in producing the sports-balls of Annenberg TV News, and you couldn’t ask for a better one. Elisa was dedicated in keeping the website and social media updated with fresh content every day, along with many other tasks that were probably my job instead of hers. Sports job hirers: if you need a do-it-all digital whiz, give her a call.

Evan Budrovich — I am only lucky that I graduated one year ahead of him, so I get a 12-month head-start on applying for the sportscasting jobs that he would get. All the skills I think I have? Evan has more — knowledge, great voice, broadcasting acumen and overall handsomeness. I better get out of the sports broadcasting business before Evan takes every job.

Sarah Sax — She has a work ethic for days and interests in all the things I usually find boring (meaning politics). I don’t know if Sarah is going to become a political reporter, a national TV producer or head of the Anti-Defamation League. She could do any of them.

Jessica Benson — Screw Jessica. She gets to do everything I want to in life: traveling to the Final Four and National Championships, working for ESPN, doing sideline reporting for baseball, getting an awesome sports anchoring job, meeting Bob Costas and Al Michaels. If she weren’t an amazing person who deserves everything she gets, I would loathe her.

Paige Graham — While she’s working on the web side of things now, but you’re going to see Paige anchoring Super Bowl coverage some day. She possesses some rare traits, not the least of which was putting up with my awful jokes every Wednesday and during several classes. The ability to survive hours with me without clawing your own eyes out is perhaps the rarest trait of all.

Mike Piellucci — This dude was the finest wordsmith I had the privilege of editing at Neon Tommy. No one else pushed me to a thesaurus more. I don’t know why the hell he wrote for our silly website, but I’m glad he did. He’s a knockout writer, and we’re just lucky that he chooses to write about sports.

Katie Rooney — Or Kate, if you’re going by her professional name. The powers-that-be stuck a 19-year-old sophomore with a 30-year-old grad student to run Neon Tommy Sports, and it’s a credit to the grad student that we didn’t sink the site and I did not end up murdered. Generous with her time and a better leader than I could hope to be, I know she is killing it with Pac-12 Networks.

Aaron Fischman — Meet another one of my classmates who works three times as hard as I do. And it shows. He’s a smart, terrific writer who has forgotten more about basketball than I will ever remember. Keep your nose to the grindstone, Aaron. Good things are coming.

Will Robinson — A fellow leader at Neon Tommy: a great editor and an even better friend. Whether he ends up writing about football or basketball, you can expect intelligence and humor from his work. But as a Sacramento Kings fan, he is an unfortunate glutton for punishment.

Alexa Girkout — Another person I am lucky to graduate in front of, because if she sticks to baseball writing instead of silly little music writing, she’ll take another job that I would be looking to get. However, she does like my puns, which means she ought to be put in an insane asylum.

Matt Leland — The inverse is true here: I am unfortunate to be younger than the smart and talented Matt Leland. He was the best baseball play-by-play announcer I had the privilege to work with. If he ever gets back to that vocation (though I can’t blame him for saddling up with MLB Advance Media), he’ll be on a Major League announcing track.

Nick Burton — This guy is incredibly kind and even more incredibly hard-working. I could give Nick many compliments, but let me just summarize by saying: If I am ever lucky enough to hire a producer in the future, Nick will be the first person I call.

Jeremy Bergman — I’ve said it before, but it is very difficult to be funny in print writing. Jeremy does it, somehow, and did professional work for an amateur site. Soon he’ll be one of your favorite sports writers. He was one of my favorites to edit.

Jacob Freedman — I left Neon Tommy in good hands with Jacob. He had better ideas for the site than I ever did and remains devoted to producing a quality sports section. He brought fantastic experience from 30-some-odd internships he has had. I don’t know how he finds all that time.

Again, this will be just the first of several editions in which I laud the abilities of my classmates. I haven’t forgotten you.

Simpsons Marathon Weekend: 10 Episodes to DVR

This is the kind of weekend you remember forever. I’m only sort of kidding.

The Simpsons will air all weekend long on FXX as part of the network’s “Every Simpsons Ever” marathon, celebrating the network’s exclusive cable rights to the show. As impressive as it is to run 552 episodes (plus the movie!) over 12 days, the latter part of the marathon will consist of the less-good recent seasons.

So this weekend is the sweet spot. The show gets beyond its sometimes-awkward early seasons and gets into best-comedy-ever territory. If you are new to the show, or you simply want to re-live the finest episodes the show has to offer (roughly Seasons 4 through 8), I provide this guide of the 10 episodes to DVR this weekend.

Marge vs. the Monorail
(Friday, 9:00 p.m.)

This is possibly my favorite episode of all-time. It is one of the funniest half-hours of television I have ever seen, and I am head-over-heels for Phil Hartman as the Music Man-parodying Phil Hartman. “Monorail” is comedic songwriting at the show’s finest.

Whacking Day
(Saturday, 1:00 a.m.)

The writers put out some delicious satire over these seasons, one of which is “Whacking Day,” skewering local politics, public education and mob mentality with aplomb.

Cape Feare
(Saturday, 3:00 a.m.)

There are several great episodes involving Bart trying to evade the murderous Sideshow Bob. This one is my favorite.

Who Shot Mr. Burns
(Sunday, 1:30 a.m.)

Okay, this is a bit of a cheat because it’s a two-part episode. But this is too much of a classic to miss.

King-Size Homer
(Sunday, 5:00 a.m.)

This list may be a bit Homer-episode-heavy (no pun intended), but these seasons are where the writers really hit the sweet spot of making the protagonist lovable and oafish without being a total idiot. For Homer, the idea of gaining 61 pounds in order to work from home makes complete sense.

It also features an underrated classic joke. When Homer causes a gas leak that destroys a corn field, the poor farmer can only lament: “Oh no, the corn! Paul Newman’s gonna have ma’ legs broke!”

22 Short Films About Springfield
(Sunday, Noon)

Not every one of the vignettes is a knockout, but the whole is greater than the sum, in part because of the brilliant ways director Jim Reardon transitions between each story.

My favorites? Apu having a Ferris Bueller’s Day Off lark as he leaves the Kwik-E-Mart for five minutes; Dr. Nick being utilized for a crazy procedure on Grampa; a Pulp Fiction parody as Chief Wiggum discovers McDonald’s; Nelson taunting the extremely tall man; and of course, Principal Skinner and his steamed hams.

Summer of 4 Ft. 2
(Sunday, 1:30 p.m.)

As you re-live the Simpsons’ glory years, The AV Club explorations of classic episodes act as a nice guide. I particularly liked Dennis Perkins’ recent piece on “Summer of 4 Ft. 2.”

Of all the myriad residents of Springfield, Lisa is the most alone. Sure, her family loves her—in their way—but her intelligence sets her apart, even as the little girl in her wants nothing more than to be one of the crowd. Lisa appeals to every viewer who looks at the craziness and boorishness of a loud, dumb world and longs to both transcend it and be embraced by it. And since Springfield is our world, only exponentially crazier and more boorish, Lisa’s isolation is even more profound.

This strikes at my heart. Lisa, I can relate. Maybe you can too.

You Only Move Twice
(Sunday, 3:00 p.m.)

If it’s not on everyone’s list of top-five favorite episodes, it does feature one of the greatest one-off characters in Simpsons history. Albert Brooks is perfect as Hank Scorpio, Homer’s too-nice-to-be-true boss at his new job in Cypress Creek. Scorpio and the new-age workplace play a fantastic dynamic as the place Homer finally feels accepted for his… particular style of work ethic. Watch to the end for the brilliant James Bond-esque parody song.

The Itchy & Scratchy & Poochie Show
(Sunday, 9:00 p.m.)

The episode is a hilarious send-up of cartoon tropes and an inside-baseball critique of executive tampering with beloved programs. Let’s not forget the Simpsons writers commenting on fan criticism of their show:

Bart: Hey, I know it wasn’t great, but what right do you have to complain?
Comic Book Guy: As a loyal viewer, I feel they owe me.
Bart: What? They’re giving you thousands of hours of entertainment for free. What could they possibly owe you? I mean, if anything, you owe them!
Comic Book Guy: …Worst episode ever.

And don’t forget Roy.

Homer vs. the 18th Amendment
(Sunday, 11:00 p.m.)

Some of my favorite episodes position Homer opposite goofy one-time characters. When a prohibitionist movement sparks up in Springfield, Homer becomes a bootlegger being chased by Rex Banner, a fedora-wearing officer whose idea of speaking plainly and simply involves asking “Where’d you pinch the hooch? Is some blind tiger jerking suds on the side?”